Tuesday, March 31, 2009

did you make the best decision?

your best decision?

ever feel you made a good decision, or worse... a bad one?

of course you did, we all have.

when you make a decision, there are many factors that are involved in the process.

basically you gather all of your previous knowledge and experience up to this point and vigorously apply it.

it is not until you see the outcome, do you feel that you have made a "good" decision or a "bad" decision.

there is no way for you to know the outcome.

there is absolutely no way you can 'see' the result beforehand. most people base the value of their decision on what happens afterward. the outcome is something unknowable, this is why some people have a difficult time making a decision and simply refuse to do it.

they feel they made a mistake once, and don't wnat it to happen again.

who does? it hurts!

this is very noticeable in the stock market or business or investing in general. people make it big or they lose their shirts, or worse.

this is called outcome bias.

they look at the outcome and decide whether it was a 'good' decision or a 'bad' one, instead of looking at their reasons for entering in the first place.

few people look at how and why they entered the decision.

theoretically, every decision you make is a good one.

let me explain: your best thinking got you where you are today. just think, nobody will rationally go out there in the world to intentionally make a bad choice.

everything we are as humans will push us to do our best, because we do not want to make any mistakes. on every decision you make, you will use every ounce of your previous knowledge, experience and education to make the best assessment of each and every situation.

each decision can only be the best decision you have ever made.

now, the outcome, that is a different story.

the result of your cumulative efforts is neither 'good' or 'bad' but rather how you feel about it.

i have seen people make money in the stock market and they have said: "aw, damn! i should have put more money into it!" - this is someone who MADE money. they didn't lose their investment, shirt or house - they MADE money with a loser mentality. they are looking at the outcome and NOT looking at why they decided to trade only a little of their investment capital.

i have also heard: "i lost money on those trades, thankfully i only put about 5% of my capital towards them, thank god, i learned to manage my accounts!" this is a winner mentality. this is the person who is looking at the reasoning behind the decision rather than the result. this is the guy who is making 5-7% minimum on his money a month.

i hear similar things when talking to 'business people' or 'investors' who are losing their shirts or who are stuck in a ten year rut. they are too busy languishing over the choice they have to make that will catapult them into freedom.

just make a decision and stick with it:

it's the best one you have made so far anyway.

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